Gold price outlook 2025: Gold prices that have climbed over 30 per cent so far in 2024 to Rs 7,300 per gram in the Indian markets (up 28 per cent in dollar terms till November-end), are set for their best calendar year performance in 10 years, suggests a recent report by World Gold Council (WGC). However, this stellar run, analysts believe, may not carry through till the end of 2025 in the backdrop of economic and geopolitical headwinds.
For India to transform into a high-income country with a projected gross domestic product (GDP) of $23-35 trillion, will need a sustained annual growth of 8 per cent to 10 per cent. This will be powered by India's demographic dividend, technological innovation, and sectoral transformation, according to the "India@2047: Transforming India Into A Tech-Driven Economy" report by Bain & Company and Nasscom. By 2047, the services sector is expected to contribute 60 per cent of India's GDP, while manufacturing will account for 32 per cent, both playing a pivotal role in economic expansion.
A lower risk appetite among investors has driven gold, traditionally a safe-haven asset, to record highs so far this year. Fuelled by geopolitical tensions in West Asia, robust demand from central banks - particularly in Asia - and US President Donald Trump's tariff volleys, spot gold touched an all-time high of $2,956 per ounce on February 24 in the international markets.
As the Indian stock markets tumble under the panic set off by US President Donald Trump's tariff tantrums, three market experts weigh in on the reasons behind this fall, how much pain is left and how should investors adapt their strategies to invest in markets.
Major Indian carmakers are preparing for sluggish domestic PV sales growth of just 1-2 per cent in FY26.
'As the global economy undergoes significant transformations in 2025, India's ability to navigate the complexities of trade wars, financial realignments, and emerging blocs will be pivotal,' explain Harsh V Pant and Soumya Bhowmik.
'And this will persist given the two-and-a-half-front threat we face.'
'But I don't think the government is in a great hurry to sign the BTA.'
The Federation of Indian Export Organisations (FIEO), the apex body for exporters, is formulating a strategy for five key sectors to boost exports to the United States (US), as President-elect Donald Trump has threatened to impose high tariffs on Chinese goods. "This time, we need to be proactive instead of reactive.
Prospects of a bumper kharif harvest are expected to lower food inflation in the coming months, making the country's inflation outlook benign, the Union Ministry of Finance (FinMin) said in its monthly economic report for October released on Monday.
'In the past six months, capital markets have seen a dip, and realty is struggling. The stock-market investor will be cautious of putting that investment in real estate when there may be a slowdown coming.'
Sebastian Coe, frontrunner for the International Olympic Committee (IOC) presidency, has hailed the inclusion of cricket in the 2028 Los Angeles Games, stating it will open up new markets, crucial for the Olympic movement's growth. He emphasized the sport's extensive support base beyond South Asia, particularly in major cities with large South Asian communities.
'If gold's recent surge has increased its allocation beyond 15 per cent in your portfolio, now may be a good time to rebalance.'
The biggest risk to India's growth outlook is an escalation of geopolitical tensions, especially if these tensions spread to the Asian region, RBI Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) member Jayanth R Varma said on Wednesday. Varma, in an interview to PTI, said that inflation and inflationary expectations appear to be moderating and high inflation will certainly not become the 'norm' in the country. He is cautiously optimistic about the Indian economy as after the pandemic abated, consumption demand has begun to recover though the recovery is uneven across sectors and industries.
The meltdown in Dalal Street that wiped out investor wealth to the tune of 44 trillion in 2025 also seems to be having a ripple effect on the country's vibrant automobile retail sales.
The National Security Strategy document should flag all major issues concerning security strategy and provide guidelines to concerned departments to work out suitable action plans. Since the global and regional geopolitical canvas is dynamic, the NSS document should be deliberated at length before formulation and should be reviewed periodically, recommends Commodore Venugopal Menon (retd).
'If they aim to remain aligned with the public sentiment, as any democratic government should, then they must respond. Why else would the prime minister have cut short his visit to Saudi Arabia? And why would he have instructed the home minister himself to travel to Srinagar to assess the situation firsthand? This suggests that something is indeed being planned. I am quite certain of that, although the exact form it will take remains to be seen.'
Investors' sentiments will be guided by a host of domestic and global macroeconomic data announcements this week, along with the trading activity of foreign investors and trends in world stocks, analysts said. Besides, the rupee-dollar trend and movement of global oil benchmark Brent crude will also be crucial in dictating terms in the market, experts added.
Dharma Guardian 2025 will primarily focus on urban warfare tactics and counter-terrorism operations and underscores the growing strategic partnership between India and Japan.
The rupee tumbled 3 per cent against the US dollar in 2024 as concerns over slower economic growth and a stronger greenback in global markets weighed, but it was among the least volatile currencies in the world and the headwinds may be less intense in the coming year.
Job creation, improving farm productivity, and mobilising public funds for infrastructure development were some of the issues that figured during the interaction between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and economists ahead of the 2025-26 Union Budget. The prime minister on Tuesday met eminent economists and sectoral experts at NITI Aayog to hear their views and suggestions for the upcoming Budget. Union Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman is scheduled to present the Budget for 2025-26 in the Lok Sabha on February 1, 2025.
'We not only have to secure our national interests but also prepare for new national security challenges like cyber warfare and terrorism.'
He said that the two nations will have issues in the foreseeable future. However, there are ways of addressing those issues and what happened in 2020 was not the way to address those issues.
Domestic equity markets will be driven mainly by quarterly earnings, global trends, and the movement in crude oil prices in this holiday-shortened week, analysts said. Investors would also keep an eye on the Middle East amid the ongoing Hamas-Israel conflict and the trading activity of foreign investors. Markets will remain closed on Tuesday for Dussehra.
It will be the second Budget of the Modi 3.0 government and eighth straight Budget for Nirmala Sitharaman, rare in Indian polity.
India's merchandise exports dipped by about one per cent to $38.01 billion in December 2024 against $38.39 billion a year ago, according to government data released on Wednesday. Imports increased by 4.8 per cent to $59.95 billion in December 2024 compared to $57.15 billion in the year-ago month.
Foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows into India have crossed the $1 trillion milestone in the April 2000-September 2024 period, firmly establishing the country's reputation as a safe and key investment destination globally. According to data from the Department for Promotion of Industry and Internal Trade (DPIIT), the cumulative amount of FDI, including equity, reinvested earnings and other capital, stood at $1,033.40 billion during the said period.
The stage may be set for a recalibrated US-Iran relationship, suggests Ambassador M K Bhadrakumar.
The Commonwealth of Dominica will bestow its highest national award, the Dominica Award of Honour, upon Prime Minister Narendra Modi this month in recognition of his contributions to Dominica during the COVID-19 pandemic and his dedication to strengthening the partnership between the two countries.
Facing criticism from the government over the central bank prioritising inflation over growth, the new RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra on Monday said that prospects of the Indian economy are expected to improve on the back of high consumer and business confidence in 2025. "As we strive to preserve financial stability to support a higher growth path for the Indian economy, our focus remains steadfast on maintaining stability of financial institutions and, more broadly, systemic stability," Malhotra said in foreword to the Financial Stability Report.
It seems in the geopolitics of the 21st century, we can see the subcontinent acting as one geopolitical entity to secure its economic interests. Key to this transformation is a strong India that is pre-eminent but not dominant, notes Colonel Anil A Athale (retd).
Prime Minister Narendra Modi and French President Emmanuel Macron have called for enhancing trade and investment ties between their countries and committed to further deepening their engagement in the Indo-Pacific. They discussed a full spectrum of bilateral relations, including key global and regional issues, and stressed the urgent need for reform in the United Nations Security Council. The leaders also underscored their commitment to ensuring the global AI sector can drive positive social, economic, and environmental outcomes.
We must bring a laser focus on our own interests, and define our friends and foes more clearly instead of trying to live by somebody else's rules. We must grow up, think for ourselves, think India First, asserts R Jagannathan.
'By his words, actions, and body language during their joint press appearance wanted to convey his personal respect and, more broadly, his desire to work closely with India.'
Latest GDP growth numbers a one-off development and not the beginning of a trend, says CEA V Anantha Nageswaran.
Analysts are warning of growing risks to the market's sustained momentum, and even to the possibility of consolidation at current levels. Domestically, markets are grappling with several challenges, including a slowing economy, as indicated by the latest GDP data for the July-September (Q2) quarter of 2024-25 (FY25), sticky inflation, fluctuations in the rupee, waning consumption, and high interest rates.
Under capital expenditure, Rs 48,614 crore has been set aside for aircraft and aero engines while Rs 24,390 crore has been allocated for the naval fleet.
Equity benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty settled lower for the sixth straight session on Monday due to heavy selling in bellwether stocks including HDFC Bank and Reliance Industries amid mixed trends in the global markets and outflow of foreign funds. Falling for the sixth consecutive session, the BSE Sensex tumbled 638.45 points or 0.78 per cent to settle at 81,050. During the day, it plummeted 962.39 points or 1.17 per cent to 80,726.06. The NSE Nifty slumped 218.85 points or 0.87 per cent to end at 24,795.75.
Amid current geopolitical challenges and a slowdown in global growth, veteran emerging market investor Mark Mobius called India a safe haven for investors, backed by a stable government. The renowned investor, who is excited about the opportunities available in India, said the country is now the second largest in the portfolio of Mobius Capital Partners after Taiwan. Calling India a "land of opportunities and innovation", he said that his optimism about India is driven by the stable government and young demographic, with an average age of 27 years.
the largest transactions of the year include the merger of Quality Care India and Aster DM Healthcare valued at $5.08 billion, followed by Bharti Enterprises' acquisition of a 24.5 per cent stake in the BT Group at $4.08 billion, and a family settlement transaction in the Godrej family at $3.5 billion.
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